It is also relatively easy to explain when the match is over, but so very hard to predict beforehand.
Posted on February 9, by Scott Alexander I.
Tyler Cowen writes about cost disease. Cowen seems to use it indiscriminately to refer to increasing costs in general — which I guess is fine, goodness knows we need a word for that.
Cowen assumes his readers already understand that cost disease exists. So I thought I would make the case for the cost disease in the sectors Tyler mentions — health care and education — plus a couple more.
There was some argument about the style of this graph, but as per Politifact the basic claim is true. Per student spending has increased about 2. At the same time, test scores have stayed relatively stagnant.
School spending has been on exactly the same trajectory before and after that time, and in white and minority areas, suggesting that there was something specific about that decade which improved minority but not white scores.
I discuss this phenomenon more here and herebut the summary is: Costs really did more-or-less double without any concomitant increase in measurable quality.
Which would you prefer? Sending your child to a school? Second, college is even worse: My parents sometimes talk about their college experience, and it seems to have had all the relevant features of a college experience.
The graph is starting to look disappointingly familiar: The cost of health care has about quintupled since This has had the expected effects. Life expectancy has gone way up since In terms of calculating how much lifespan gain healthcare spending has produced, we have a couple of options.
Start with by country: Some people use this to prove the superiority of centralized government health systems, although Random Critical Analysis has an alternative perspective. In any case, it seems very possible to get the same improving life expectancies as the US without octupling health care spending.
The Netherlands increased their health budget by a lot aroundsparking a bunch of studies on whether that increased life expectancy or not. In none of these studies is the issue of reverse causality addressed; sometimes it is not even mentioned.
This implies that the effect of health care spending on mortality may be overestimated. Based on our review of empirical studies, we conclude that it is likely that increased health care spending has contributed to the recent increase in life expectancy in the Netherlands.
An important reason for the wide range in such estimates is that they all include methodological problems highlighted in this paper. But if we irresponsibly take their median estimate and apply it to the current question, we get that increasing health spending in the US has been worth about one extra year of life expectancy.
That would suggest a slightly different number of 0. Or instead of slogging through the statistics, we can just ask the same question as before. Do you think the average poor or middle-class person would rather: The first New York City subway opened around A confluence of forces, driven by technology, is changing the landscape in healthcare and the pharmaceutical industry’s role within it.
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